PT Solid Gold Berjangka | Dollar at 10-Month Top as US Yields Spike; Yen Slides
The dollar stood by 10-month highs against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, supported by U.S. bond yields scaling 16-year peaks, while the yen tiptoed deeper into the intervention danger zone.
A combination of resilient economic data, hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and a budget deficit to be financed by borrowing has the 10-year Treasury yield up more than 45 basis points in September to top 4.5% for the first time since 2007.
Rates markets are priced for an almost 40% risk of another Fed hike this year, against slimmer chances for another rise in Europe, and the difference has helped prop up a dollar many had bet would swiftly fall once short-term rates peaked.
As U.S. yields rose, the euro lost 0.5% overnight, hitting a six-month trough of $1.0575 and setting a course for its worst quarterly drop in a year, down about 3%.
Sterling is also set to snap three quarters of gains, with a loss of 3.8% over the three months to September. It fell to a six-month low of $1.2195 overnight and traded only a whisker above that level early in the Asia session.
The U.S. dollar index touched its highest since November at 106.1.
Last week brought more signs that central banks beyond the Fed are reaching the end of their hiking cycles.
The Swiss franc has tumbled through its 200-day moving average to hit its lowest since June after the central bank surprisingly kept short-term rates on hold.
The yen has slowly but inexorably slid toward the 150-per-dollar mark as policymakers stuck with ultra-easy settings.
The psychological level is seen as a likely red line for the finance ministry, whose warnings of possible intervention have stepped up in recent weeks. Traders have an eye on a Tuesday meeting of political leaders and Bank of Japan officials.
The yen hit 148.97 to the dollar on Monday and last traded at 148.72.
Rising commodity prices have provided some support to the antipodean currencies, though they have been mostly sideways for the past month or so. The Aussie was last steady at $0.6417 and the kiwi at $0.5962.
Source : Reuters