PT Solid Gold Berjangka | Yen Lags While Dollar Waits on US CPI

01:31 11 January in Commodity, PT SGB, SOLID GOLD BERJANGKA | SOLID GROUP

USD GBP/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY, AUD/USD, PT SGB Solid Gold Berjangka SG Berjangka Solid Group

Solid Gold Berjangka | This passage provides a snapshot of the foreign exchange market, specifically focusing on the performance of the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar in the context of economic data and expectations.

Here’s a breakdown:

  1. Yen Performance:
    • The yen weakened due to sluggish Japanese wages, falling 0.9% against the dollar and 1.2% against the euro.
    • Data revealed a continued decrease in real wages for the 20th consecutive month in November, contrary to policymakers’ desire for wage growth before considering policy tightening.
  2. Dollar Performance:
    • The dollar was relatively stable as traders awaited U.S. inflation data to assess the validity of expectations for rate cuts.
    • The Federal Reserve had signaled a pause in rate hikes, leading to a decline in the dollar in the latter part of the previous year.
  3. Inflation Data and Market Expectations:
    • Traders are closely watching U.S. inflation data scheduled for release at 1330 GMT to determine if the market’s anticipation of rate cuts is justified.
    • Market expectations include a potential 140 basis points (bps) of cuts in the coming year, with a 2/3 chance of them starting as early as March.
  4. Core Inflation Forecast:
    • The core inflation forecast for December is 3.8% year on year, representing a slowdown from earlier in 2021.
  5. Dollar Index and Other Currencies:
    • The dollar index stood at 102.3.
    • Other major currencies, such as the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, were relatively stable against the dollar.
    • Sterling was quoted at $1.2750, the Aussie at $0.6707, and the kiwi at $0.6232.
  6. Overall Market Sentiment:
    • The dollar had stabilized in early 2024 after a period of decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s communicated stance on rate hikes.
    • Despite some moderation in rate cut expectations, there remained a significant market anticipation for cuts, subject to potential changes based on inflation data surprises.