PT Solid Gold Berjangka | US Business Activity Stable in March; Inflation Picks Up


Indeks manufaktur AS Ekonomi AS Flash Services PMI sektor jasa PT SGB Solid Group SG Berjangka Solid Gold Berjangka

Solid Gold Berjangka | The recent data on U.S. business activity and inflation suggests a mixed picture:

  • In March, U.S. business activity remained steady, with the S&P Global Composite PMI Output Index at 52.2, a slight dip from 52.5 in February. This index tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, and a reading above 50 indicates expansion.
  • The services sector saw a cooling in activity, while manufacturing reached a 21-month high. Overall, the economy is believed to have ended the first quarter on solid ground, although the growth pace likely slowed compared to the previous quarter’s 3.2% annualized rate.
  • Despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes (525 basis points since March 2022), the U.S. economy continues to outperform global peers.
  • The Fed recently decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at the current range of 5.25%-5.50%, but policymakers still anticipate reducing it by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of the year.
  • The survey indicated a slight decrease in new orders received by private businesses to 52.1 from 52.3 in February. However, prices paid for inputs increased to a six-month high of 58.9, and the output prices gauge rose to 56.8, the highest since April 2023. The price increases were particularly notable in the services sector.
  • The rise in both input and output prices suggests the potential for further inflation in the coming months. Consumer prices have already increased notably in the first two months of 2024.
  • Going forward, with the likelihood of goods disinflation slowing down, it will be crucial for the increase in services prices to moderate significantly to maintain a downward trajectory for overall inflation.

This data indicates a complex economic landscape, with steady business activity but rising prices, particularly in the services sector. The Federal Reserve’s actions to control inflation will continue to be closely watched as the year progresses.