PT Solid Gold Berjangka | Dollar Edges Down Before US Inflation Data, Presidential Debate
US DOLLAR SOLID GOLD BERJANGKA, SG BERJANGKA , SOLID GROUP, PT SGB , SGB
Solid Gold Berjangka | The dollar edged down on Tuesday before U.S. inflation data and the televised U.S. presidential debate, which could affect expectations for the interest rate outlook.
A mixed labour report on Friday failed to make a clear-cut case for whether the Federal Reserve would deliver a regular 25 basis point (bps) rate cut or an outsized 50 bps one at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. Traders are now waiting on Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index report.
Barclays strategists noted that the greenback typically weakened ahead of Fed easing cycles and tended to overestimate rate cuts during so-called soft economic landings. Still, they said, a large part of its move had probably already happened.
Investor focus will also be on the televised U.S. presidential debate later on Tuesday that could weigh heavily on the November election.Investors see the greenback rising in the event of a Donald Trump victory, as tariffs might prop up the currency and higher fiscal spending could boost interest rates.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 101.62, down 0.03%.
Markets are currently fully pricing in a 25 bps cut from the Fed next week, with a 50 bps cut priced in at 30%, down from as high as 50% on Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
For 2024, traders expect 110 bps of easing, up from around 100 bps, from the remaining three meetings.
Fed policymakers last week signalled they are ready to kick off a series of rate cuts, with Governor Christopher Waller saying he could support back-to-back cuts, or bigger cuts, if the data suggests the need.
Meanwhile, the euro was flat at $1.1034 after dropping nearly 0.5% on Monday.
Investors were watching Europe’s political backdrop, mentioning the stalemate in France and heightened uncertainty across the EU after German regional elections.
Economists at Barclays expect political fragility to hinder fiscal adjustments in the euro area in 2024-2025.
The dollar was up 0.15% at 143.42 yen , creeping away from the one-month low of 141.75 touched on Friday. The greenback fell 2.7% last week against the yen.
The pound rose after UK data showed robust employment growth. It was last up 0.15% at $1.3094.
Source : Reuters