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PT Solid Gold Berjangka | RBA Sees Elevated Inflation as Resilient Economy Supports Jobs

01:12 10 November in Fiscal & Monetary, PT SGB, SOLID GOLD BERJANGKA | SOLID GROUP by admin_sgb_tcc
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RBA Reserve Bank of Australia, PT SGB, Solid Group

Solid Gold Berjangka | providing the information from Bloomberg, It seems to be a detailed report on Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and its economic outlook. Here’s a summary of the key points:

  1. Inflation Outlook: The RBA expects inflation to return to the top of its target range (2-3%) by the end of 2025. The forecast for headline inflation is 4% by mid-2024, up from the previous estimate of 3.5% three months earlier.
  2. Economic Growth: The RBA anticipates economic growth at 1.75%, up from the previous forecast of 1.5%. The domestic economy has proven more resilient than expected.
  3. Labor Market: The labor market is expected to remain strong, and the RBA foresees a gradual easing in unemployment. The peak unemployment rate is predicted to be 4.25% at the end of 2024, holding at that level through the following year.
  4. Interest Rates: The RBA recently resumed raising interest rates, with the cash rate reaching a 12-year high of 4.35%. The cash rate is assumed to peak at around 4.5% before declining to 3.5% by the end of 2025.
  5. Inflationary Pressures: Inflation remains above 5%, well above the RBA’s target range. The central bank aims to rein in inflation through its monetary policy decisions.
  6. Monetary Policy: The RBA’s priority is to return inflation to target, and further tightening of monetary policy will depend on data and evolving risk assessments.
  7. Global Factors: The RBA will closely monitor the global economy, domestic demand trends, and the outlook for inflation and the labor market in making its future decisions.
  8. Wage Growth: Wage growth is a contributing factor to inflation, expected to peak at 4% this year and holding at that level in the first half of 2024 before easing.
  9. Upside Risks and Downside Factors: Persistent poor productivity growth is seen as an upside risk to inflation. Conversely, declines in global cost pressures and tepid inflation in China could bring down overall consumer prices.
  10. Market Expectations: While some economists believe the RBA has finished hiking interest rates, others, including National Australia Bank and Royal Bank of Canada, see the possibility of at least one more hike to 4.6%. Money market bets imply rates will remain above 4% over the next year.

This summary provides an overview of the key points from the Bloomberg report on Australia’s economic outlook and the actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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