PT Solid Gold Berjangka | US Dollar Falls Against Most Currencies as Rate Cut View Weighs
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Solid Gold Berjangka | This article provides an overview of the weakening of the U.S. dollar against most major currencies, citing the expectation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in the first half of the following year. Here are key points from the article:
- Dollar’s Decline: The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline against major currencies, and the dollar index, which measures its value against six major peers, is on track for its most significant monthly drop in a year. It is down more than 3%, marking its worst performance since November 2022.
- Fed’s Monetary Policy Expectations: Market expectations indicate a approximately 23% chance that the Federal Reserve might start easing monetary policy as early as March. By May, this probability increases to about 50% at the Fed’s May meeting.
- Upcoming Events: Investors are closely watching various events and data releases during the week, which could influence the future trajectory of global interest rates. These include the postponed OPEC+ meeting, the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE), consumer price data in the euro zone and Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision, and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
- Euro’s Performance: The euro has gained about 3.4% in the month, on pace for its largest monthly rise in a year. The euro shows little reaction to remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, stating that inflation pressures in the euro zone are easing but wage growth remains strong.
- Dollar Against Yen: The dollar has fallen 0.4% against the yen, and for November, the U.S. currency has declined almost 2%, marking its biggest monthly fall since February.
- U.S. New Home Sales Data: The dollar extended its losses following data that revealed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. new home sales for October.
- British Pound’s Strength: The British pound rose against the weaker dollar to a more than two-month high, following data indicating that British companies reported a marginal return to growth in November after three months of contraction.
- Australian and New Zealand Dollars: The Australian dollar climbed to a more than three-month high against the greenback, while the New Zealand currency edged up ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision, where it is expected to remain unchanged at 5.5%.
Overall, the article provides a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing the U.S. dollar’s performance against other major currencies, including economic data, central bank decisions, and market expectations.